Vietnam's spice exports hit new heights in April 2026 โ black pepper shipments jumped 16.8% year-on-year to over 31,000 metric tons, while cassia cinnamon staged its strongest monthly rebound since 2024. But price pressure, a geopolitically disrupted Middle East, and a historic El Niรฑo on the horizon mean buyers and sellers are navigating a very different landscape in H2 2026.
Price Settles at 142,000 VND โ Buyers Jump Back In
Black Pepper
Vietnam Farm-Gate ยท Week 19, May 2026
After slipping from its January peak of 152,000 VND/kg, the Vietnam black pepper price held rock-steady at 142,000 VND/kg throughout the week of May 3โ10. At this level, US and EU importers who had been waiting are now committing to spot orders and locking in 2027 delivery schedules.
VND/kg ยท Farm-gate price, Vietnam Central Highlands ยท Source: VPSA / MARESO Research
April export volumes hit 31,053 metric tons โ up 16.8% vs April 2025 and 1.4% above March 2026. Revenue reached US$193.1M (black: US$164.2M, white: US$28.9M). Revenue dipped 3.1% MoM due to the lower price, but volume growth shows demand fundamentals remain strong.
Source: VPSA preliminary statistics
The US remained Vietnam's #1 pepper market at 7,272 tons in April (23.4% of total exports). The biggest surprise? China โ surging 24.5% MoM in April, and a jaw-dropping +289.3% over four months. Chinese food-processing demand is back, buying at scale.
MT = metric tons ยท Source: VPSA / Customs General Department
Asia resurgence driven by China reopening demand and sustained Philippine growth ยท Source: VPSA
The Middle East is still in conflict, making deliveries impossible and resulting in no new demand from this market โ yet it still represents ~15% of Vietnam's pepper export turnover.MARESO Market Intelligence โ April 2026
The Middle East is the biggest drag on the market right now. Conflict has closed key shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing freight costs up 3โ4ร on some lanes and causing severe congestion at Jebel Ali, Bahrain, and Oman. Some Vietnamese exporters have paused new orders to the region entirely.
The Comeback Story: +62.4% in a Single Month
Cassia Cinnamon
Vietnam Export ยท April 2026
After a quiet March, cassia exploded back in April โ +62.4% in volume and +50.1% in value to reach 12,491 tons and US$31.0 million. Over the full four months, Vietnam shipped 34,745 tons worth US$89.1 million โ up 8.7% in volume and 4.9% in revenue YoY.
India is the engine here. It absorbed 4,673 tons in April alone โ up 176.5% MoM โ and 11,507 tons over four months, representing 33.1% of all Vietnam cassia exports. Bangladesh and the United States take spots 2 and 3. Meanwhile, Indonesia quietly emerged as a fast-growing new buyer, up 62.2% over four months to 1,186 tons.
Unit: MT ยท Source: VPSA preliminary statistics
China jumped 200.6% MoM in April โ but its 4-month total of 961 tons still trails 2025 by 36.4%, suggesting opportunistic rather than committed buying. Europe reached 736 tons (+11.9% MoM) and Africa 435 tons (+21.2% MoM), both pointing to broadening demand beyond the traditional Asian core.
India Destocking Drags Volumes Down โ Europe Picks Up the Slack
Star Anise
4 Months 2026 Cumulative
Star anise is the one commodity where Vietnam is running below 2025 pace. Four-month exports of 4,330 tons are down 27.0% YoY, with revenue dropping 21.8%. The root cause is India โ which cut purchases by 39.1%, sliding to just 2,785 tons as it works through elevated stockpiles from last year's over-buying.
But April flashed a recovery signal: monthly volume rose 13.8% MoM to 1,370 tons (US$5.4M), with India itself up 31.6% vs March. The destocking cycle is likely in its final stages. More importantly, Europe is filling the gap โ EU volumes jumped 41.2% over four months, led by the Netherlands (+464.3% YoY) and Germany (+128.6% YoY).
Netherlands +464.3% YoY, Germany +128.6% YoY โ EU premium quality demand driven by pesticide/PAH compliance requirements
The Big Picture: Why the Market Is Turning Bullish
Four structural forces โ not temporary noise โ are building a bullish case for Vietnamese spices through 2026 and into 2027.
- El Niรฑo 2026 โ the strongest since 2015โ2016 โ is expected to cut global pepper supply by 15โ20% in the 2026โ2027 crop year. Vietnam's Central Highlands, Indonesia, and India are all in the drought zone.
- Global inventories are at multi-year lows: Indonesia holds just 13,000 MT in stock, and Indian production fell 32% in 2025. Supply cannot recover quickly.
- US tariff reversal: the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs on Feb 20, 2026 โ US importers are receiving duty refunds worth US$133โ175B, making Vietnamese pepper cheaper to land.
- Vietnam = world's #1 supplier, holding over 40% of global pepper output. No alternative origin can fill the gap at scale.
4 Forces Every Buyer & Seller Should Track Right Now
Gulf nations produce 44% of global sulfur โ supply disruption flows directly into DAP/MAP fertiliser costs, raising per-kg pepper production costs and incentivising farmers to withhold supply
US Tariff Reversal
The IEEPA tariffs on Vietnamese goods were ruled unconstitutional in February 2026. US importers are getting refunds โ potentially the largest in US history โ which directly reduces the landed cost of Vietnamese pepper and spices and is driving a new wave of forward orders.
Middle East Freight Disruption
Conflict in the region has shut down key shipping lanes, including the Strait of Hormuz. Freight costs have risen 3โ4ร on some routes. Port congestion at Jebel Ali, Bahrain, and Oman is severe. The Middle East represents ~15% of Vietnam's pepper revenue.
Farmers Holding Stock
In Gia Lai โ Vietnam's pepper heartland โ farmers are sitting on inventory rather than selling, anticipating higher prices ahead. Labour shortages add pressure. The result: tighter spot supply, stronger price floor, and a market that rewards early buyers who lock in supply.
Rising Input Costs
Gulf nations produce 44% of global sulfur, a key input for DAP and MAP fertilisers. With the Middle East in crisis, sulfur supply is tightening. DAP prices hit $851/tonne and urea $674/tonne in March 2026 โ costs that flow directly into every kg of pepper produced.
The bottom line: farmers earn less but spend more to produce each kilogram, which means they have a strong incentive to hold pepper off the market until prices rise. That behaviour tightens physical supply โ exactly when global inventories are already historically low.